Forecasting the Inevitable
Somebody asked me, so what do you think about the upcoming elections. What are your predictions?
Do you notice the word “are”…?
Allright, obvioously my friend don’t know that I have a blog and that I have made some sort of prediction in this post – Antara Realita dan Mimpi Demokrasi di Malaysia (3)
Ok, I actually told hims that I expect with 95% probabililty that Barisan Nasional will retain at least their two third majority.
I also said to him that the probability of the opposition to retain their current seats is 60%. But for them to up 50% their seats – the probability will be 30% and for them to even reach the most number of seast just at the 1/3 level of total seats in the parliament will be a low of 6 to 7%.
And of course for the opposition to deny the Barisan’s 2/3 majority will be lower than 5%.
Why? I suppose you have to understand the Malaysian political system… I mean understand it…. in a dis-passionate way.. yeah without passion….
Of course there is a glimmer of hope – the less than 5% probability… like what Azmi Sharom said about his favourite soccer club.. see this post by Walski